Backtesting a trading strategy is essential, and this video demonstrates how to backtest using FX Replay. Learn to trade the orb trading strategy with a focus on price action. Check out my live trading each day to see these strategies in action.
Transcript
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What’s going on, guys? So, I’m going to do a 15minute orb back test. Basically, what I’m going to do, there’s a lot of different ways to play this. I am using FX Replay, and this is going to be the break. Once a one minute candle closes above the uh the orb, so basically gets rid of any wicks. I will take the long above that candle and my stop would be back inside the orb. I’m going to see how much I can
Get. I think I’m going to My initial test is obviously the stop is going to be inside the orb. Um and my take profit is probably going to be 15 points. Um I might go through the back test and see how many times it hits and then maybe see what I can get. If you want to see me do this live, uh, subscribe and watch me trade live every day free on YouTube. Uh, if you’re trading prop firms, if you want
To support the channel, use coupon code trader. So, basically, it’s going to look like this. Um, you know, that would have wicked me in and out because the orb is right up here. So, I would have lost if you just grabbed a wick. I’m just going to show you what one looks like. So basically that did not close above. So now this closed above, right? So now I am going to grab a long position and I’ll just set it literally right
There. Um this is for I’m going to bring this to the bottom. So this is where the orb actually is. The orb is a stop is eight. I want to say if it’s like eight points, I’m just going to move it to 10. And then I’m trying to get 15 points. Like I said, you do place order and let’s see what happens. We’re in. We’re in. And it almost hit our TP. Let’s see what happens. All right. First one worked. So,
I’m going to do this back test. I’m not going to make you watch the rest of this. So, let me run the back test for about a month, uh, maybe more, and I will update you the results right here. What’s going on, guys? So, all right. I just did the back test, and I’m I’m into it, but I’m not as far as I normally back test by any means. But I could tell right away this orb strategy sucks. So, if your
Uh if your furu is telling you to play the break of the orb, uh this is what it this is what neted out. I mean, you you saw my back test. You could see everything on the screen that um I was doing. Um so, this is it. If I if you started in uh the 23rd of June all the way into July, you are basically break even. So, you’ve wasted I don’t know two weeks of trading. You’re break even. The win
Rate is 40%. Um the R to R is 1.5. Uh it actually went negative at one point. This is playing one mini by the way. Uh it’s just a crap trade. Um you can see the buy side is 50% winners. The sell side is 20 25% winners. Uh, it’s just not I’m I’m when I have other strategies, by the time I’m two weeks in, we’re up money and the win rate is over 40% already. Like, I want to listen, I don’t
I normally don’t stop after 10 days or whatever, but I can’t have a 40% win rate after 10 days. I know it’s small and you somebody’s like it’s it’s actually it’s just you know I’ve most all my back tests on trades that I take I’m over 60% already so I’m usually in the 60s and I’m looking for at least you know one and a half R to R this being 40% and I’ll be honest with you the more I’ve noticed is
We come down and like say on the sell side like this, we’ll sweep down and then it comes all the way back up. I almost I’m going to test the other way where where you have the orb right here, you know, say the orb’s right here and every time you close below with the one minute, you then set a buy for inside the orb and this would have triggered. Let’s see what happens. Yeah, you would have gotten you would have gotten
Paid here. Uh, basically you would have gotten triggered at 9002 and it went up to 917. That seems to be the better play is to play the ranges of the orb because a lot of times I’m noticing is it’s closing and then it’s coming back the other way. Um, yeah, especially to the downside. I’ve noticed more to the downside, you’re sweeping the the downside of the orb and then you’re just coming back up to the upside. And you know, obviously as
I’m doing it, uh, you know, you would have gotten paid. I just showed you you would have gotten paid, but I’ll just show you like another another example. You know, the orb is made Let’s see what happens. All right. So, you basically close below. So, what I would want to do is I would almost want to say, okay, if we go I’d probably offset it. So, say it’s 889, I’d probably go up like three points. This is a back test that
I want to do next is something like this. No, that wouldn’t have even hit. Not that it has to hit every time, but I’m just curious. See, it’s just wild how it does eventually come back up. Um, I don’t know. I’m going to play around with some of the orbs I have. So, each market is different. We’re in a different type of market now. So, I don’t know. I’m going to play around with this. Um, but at least it’s a a
Back test to show you what not to do. So, if you were trading the breaks, don’t trade them. All right. Do you have any questions?
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