Hedge Fund Research Desk · updated August 7, 2026
Circuit breaker
🟢 ALL CLEAR
Rules
day ≤ -2.5% / week ≤ -5% → halt entries · -10% off peak → full stop + manual restart
💼 Positions
Live paper-fund book across the three accounts · auto-refreshed with the page
Fund equity
$1,000,000
Day P&L
+$0
Total P&L
+$0 (+0.0%)
Fund acct
$1,000,000 (+0.0%)
| Symbol | Book | Qty | Entry | Last | Value | Unrealized P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat — no open positions. | ||||||
🧾 Recent Trades
| Date | Symbol | Book | Side | Qty | Fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No recent fills. | |||||
🎯 Allocation Dial
Mechanical exposure ladder: trim when the market is overextended, deploy the reserve into big dips, defensive below the 200-day
SPY vs 200-day
+10.4% · EXTENDED
Target exposure
80%
Off 20-day high
+0.0%
SPY RSI(2)
87
Margin ladder (% of equity, 2x overnight BP available, cap 175%): below 200sma 25% · 0-5% above 130% · 5-10% 110% · 10-15% 80% · >15% 55% · dip-add +30 when 5%+ off highs · panic-add +15 when RSI2<5
📈 Momentum Leaders
Liquid names in uptrends within 20% of highs, ranked by blended 3/6/12-month momentum (screen of 200+ tickers)
| Ticker | Price | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-1 | Off high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERAS | $18.27 | +67.6% | +62.5% | +1158.0% | -18.7% |
| AEHR | $99.74 | +3.1% | +318.5% | +267.4% | -14.4% |
| DELL | $437.65 | +83.6% | +260.3% | +234.7% | -6.3% |
| RVMD | $197.81 | +30.9% | +105.0% | +394.3% | +0.0% |
| AMD | $489.28 | +16.1% | +144.4% | +196.8% | -15.8% |
| GH | $157.58 | +70.8% | +48.5% | +238.2% | -7.7% |
| IRDM | $48.31 | +19.4% | +149.9% | +108.1% | -13.3% |
| PANW | $359.49 | +95.7% | +115.6% | +89.6% | -1.9% |
| ATI | $223.43 | +35.3% | +75.2% | +149.2% | +0.0% |
| OSCR | $26.54 | +33.8% | +100.8% | +122.9% | -17.5% |
| CRWD | $207.39 | +77.2% | +99.7% | +73.1% | -1.8% |
| CRS | $557.24 | +21.6% | +66.8% | +128.4% | -10.0% |
🎯 Dip Radar
Uptrend (above 200-SMA) + short-term oversold (RSI-2). Trigger = RSI2 < 10 and below 5-SMA — the setup that tested Sharpe 1.5+, PF 2-4
| Ticker | Price | RSI(2) | Off 20d high | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | $403.97 | 20.0 | -7.4% | watch |
| ABBV | $243.87 | 24.0 | -7.4% | watch |
🔍 Filing-Checked Verdicts
Does the fundamental picture (10-K/10-Q/8-K, Form 4s, 13Fs) support the price momentum?
| Ticker | Theme | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | AI servers | SUPPORTED | Q +88% y/y, AI servers +757%; FY guide $165-169B; fwd ~24x; buybacks |
| AMD | AI chips | SUPPORTED | +50% y/y accelerating, DC +107%; net cash $9.9B; China policy = main risk |
| SNOW | Data/AI software | SUPPORTED | Re-accelerating 30→34%, NRR 126%, guide raised; ~20x EV/S |
| GH | Liquid biopsy | SUPPORTED | +44% accelerating, Shield +253%, guide raised; 16x sales |
| RVMD | RAS oncology | SUPPORTED* | Ph3 OS 13.2 vs 6.7mo (HR 0.40), NDA accepted, $3.9B cash; binary, 7.2% SI rising |
| MU | Memory/HBM | PEAK-CYCLE | +346% y/y, GM 85%, $50B qtr guided — fwd P/E 6 = market calls the top; Burry short |
| STX | HDD/HAMR | PEAK-CYCLE | +48%, record margins — fwd 24x vs 8-15x norm; shorts rising |
| ATI | Aero metals | MIXED | EBITDA +37%, big raise, $4.4B backlog — 40x EPS for a cyclical |
| PANW | Cybersecurity | MIXED | Organic ~14% vs headline 31% (CyberArk); ~90x fwd; ~10% dilution |
| ALAB | AI connectivity | MIXED | +104% accelerating, 39% op margin — one customer >70% of revenue |
| NTAP | Storage | MIXED | 5-8% growth carrying an AI multiple; watchlist |
🌎 Macro Read
- Fed: 3.50-3.75%, Warsh chair; 3 FOMC dissents FOR a hike, but July payrolls -23k → Sept ~60% hold
- Inflation: CPI 3.5% / core PCE 3.3% — oil-shock driven (Hormuz closed since early July)
- Growth: Split-screen: ISM mfg 55.6 (4-yr high) + AI capex ~$700B (+77%) vs housing recession, card delinquencies 13.1%
- Positioning: Insiders selling 11:1; semis most-crowded trade ever (82%); BofA cash 3.6% = sell signal; MMF record $7.9T
- Regime: Late-cycle + supply shock (2006-07 x 1990 rhyme). July AI-hardware unwind: chips -$1T, memory -20-47%
⚖️ Strategies That Survived Backtesting
3 years of daily data, honest holdout validation, real CBOE benchmark anchoring — full write-ups in the blog
| Strategy | Rule | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Leverage for the Long Run | SSO/TQQQ only while above 200-day SMA, else T-bills | 28-46% CAGR in 3y test; century of published evidence |
| RSI(2)<5 dip-buy SPY | Above 200SMA + RSI2<5, exit close>SMA5 | Sharpe 1.49 (2.53 holdout), PF 3.8, max DD -3.4% |
| 30Δ monthly covered call | BXMD-style, hold to expiry, never weekly, never ATM | Real CBOE index: 16.4% CAGR (beats ATM CC, puts, condors) |
| Dip-triggered wheel | Sell 30Δ 30DTE CSP on dip-signal quality names; assigned → 30Δ CC | Get paid 1-3%/mo to buy dips 3-10% lower |
| 12-1 momentum sleeve | Top names by blended momentum, monthly re-rank, 200SMA gates | Raw-return leader; survivorship-flagged |
| Minervini/Weinstein swing entries | Trend template + breakout, or stage-2 cross of rising 30-wk MA; exit on MA break, no tight stops | 38-40% CAGR, Sharpe 1.3-1.5 in 3y test (survivorship-flagged) |
| QQQ wheel 30Δ/30DTE | CSP -> assigned -> covered calls, monthly cycle | Best income variant in test; expect low-teens real after friction |
Nothing here is financial advice. Backtested performance does not guarantee future results.
Synthetic option backtests overstate returns vs real traded indices (we measured it: ~6-8 CAGR pts) — anchor expectations to real data.
See the risk disclaimer.