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Transcript
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What’s going on, guys? So, the big talk of the town is the Moody’s downgrade of the United States credit rating from AAA to double A1. Um, yeah. So, this happened obviously after hours, which is normally when the big stuff always happens. Um, yeah, it’s it’s crazy. It’s going to be the talk of the weekend. Um, I’m going to tell you my thoughts about it. Before I get into that, if you want to see me trade live, we stream here on YouTube
Every single day, 10:30 to noon and 2:00 p.m. to 4:30. Uh, if you got questions uh or anything on other times, click in the description of this video. There’s a link to our free Discord. But uh yeah, let’s just jump into it and I’ll tell you my thoughts. Uh basically this has been in the works since November 2023 when Moody’s placed the US on negative outlook and today or yesterday they finally downgraded. Um so it’s been in the works. It it
Hasn’t been it’s not out of the blue. Um, you know, I’ve seen a quote that says if the US isn’t AAA, what is? So, obviously that’s a that’s definitely a feeling. You know, if the US is not the highest level, then really what is. Um, so I don’t know if obviously there’s going to be a negative effect right out of the gate. Um, we might make back the entire ground on Monday’s open. Um, that’s something I’m going to be looking at.
I looked at Weekend Wall Street and it says we’re down to uh 21,100. Um, on a chart level, that signifies a definitely a a trend change without a doubt. You know, we’re below this candle now and this candle. So, wiped out the last three days of gains and it kind of looks like we’re going to be trending back down. um you know in this this area right here maybe come low 20,000s um I’ve been talking about something’s coming. It just felt
Like uh they were pushing it up to unload into retail and uh sure enough we got the surprise at the end of the market. uh you know, we’ve been talking about it on the live stream. You know, who’s buying up here and whatnot, and it just kind of felt like a pullback was needed. This is definitely the thing that can create a pullback. Um depending on what narrative they run with, are they going to run with uh you know, if the
US is in AAA then then what is then they’ll probably shrug it off. uh if it really comes into play and things do change, yeah, I mean, you’re going to see uh a nice pullback and something that we’ve been waiting for. The LA So, when Moody’s came out in November and talked about this, November 2023, uh we were up that week. So, it’s interesting when they first started talking about this, we were we were up that week. So, we’ll see what
Happens. I do not think it’s a good thing. You got to remember also when we were when that came out in November uh 2023, you know, we were in a different spot in the chart. You know, we were basically trending in a in a bull flag from July and there was a large level of consolidation. um you know we were working off all the CPI bad you know this is terrible inflation inflation was becoming under control I think things overall were
Going to the upside um you know we haven’t made new highs in a while it was it was definitely a different tone of the market um now that we’re up here I mean we just ran a ton obviously the tariffs stuff, but it just feels different because we’ve just ran a ton that this is definitely the spark that can ignite a trend change and make us pull back a little bit. Also, the China thing was a 90-day pause. It wasn’t necessarily
A deal. So, as that gets into, you know, 30 days, 45 days, if there’s nothing being worked out, the stock market’s forward looking. So, basically, uh, they’re going to it I feel like the market’s going to start selling off that if you get 4550 days without a deal, uh, you know, they’re not going to the market’s not going to wait until day 90 to sell off. It’s it’s going to start, um, selling then. So, there’s a couple things that are out
Out there that uh I feel like are going to push the market down. Is it going to go all the way down to where we were? Probably not. But, uh yeah, it’s interesting. You know, this is definitely something I’m be watching. I want to see if we make up the gap on Monday. If we make up the gap on Monday, then we’re completely shrugging this off. This is going to be, you know, a whatever event. If we open on Monday and
Then continue to fall, uh I believe that’s the bigger guys unloading and um you know, I’m going to watch that to see where kind of the dust settles. I’m going to look for this area here. Um and that’s where I’d probably start adding to my uh my positions. Right now, I’ve sold out the majority of my positions and I have some QQ uh Q puts. So, those are those should pay out. And uh we’ll see what Monday brings. Monday, Tuesday is
Going to be the telltale where we’re going. We have backto-back red days. Uh I would say that the short-term top is in and it’s time to look for positions as we continue to pull down and see what else pops up. Um, but if we shrug this off and we’re back up probably within this, I don’t need to be as high, but if we’re within this candle on Friday, I would say that we shrugged it off and um, it’s not that big
Of a deal, even though it’s something I’ll look out for for the rest of the week. And by week’s end, I would probably shrug it off. But that’s my outlook. Um, if you have something different, comment below. And uh let me know your thoughts.
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